John Bollinger—the technical analyst who literally invented the volatility indicator everyone uses—just spotted ‘W’ bottom patterns forming on Ether and Solana charts. His advice? “Gonna be time to pay attention soon, I think.” That matters because the last time he said this, Bitcoin went from $55,000 to $100,000 in six months.
When the Inventor of the Tool Speaks, Markets Listen
Bollinger Bands are ubiquitous in crypto trading—those upper and lower lines on price charts that expand and contract with volatility. John Bollinger created them, so when he identifies specific patterns in his own indicator, traders take notice. This isn’t some random analyst using Bollinger’s tool. This is Bollinger himself calling a setup.
He’s identified potential ‘W’ bottoms on ETH ($3,855) and SOL ($183.60)—a bullish reversal pattern that suggests major upward moves could be coming. The pattern hasn’t formed on Bitcoin yet, but if it follows the same trajectory as Ether and Solana, the implications could be significant.
A ‘W’ bottom looks exactly like it sounds: price dips twice to similar levels (forming the two valleys of a W), then reverses upward. Ether hit $3,700 twice this month before recovering. Solana double-dipped to $175 in October, then bounced. Both are now showing the early stages of reversal patterns that historically precede strong rallies.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, made a sharp ‘V’ shaped dip below $104,000 Friday before weekend recovery pushed it back into a range-bound channel. It’s forming its base differently than ETH and SOL, but that doesn’t invalidate the broader setup—it just means Bitcoin might be on a slightly different timeline.
July 2024 Called the $55K to $100K Run
Context matters here. Analyst ‘Satoshi Flipper’ pointed out that Bollinger’s last “pay attention” call was July 2024, right before Bitcoin’s massive six-month rally from below $55,000 to over $100,000. At the time, Bollinger identified a “real Squeeze” with “a two-bar reversal at the lower band”—technical jargon that translated to: major move incoming.
He was right. Bitcoin more than doubled in the months that followed, validating his pattern recognition when many traders were still uncertain about direction. Now he’s seeing similar setups forming again, this time on altcoin charts first.
The timing aligns with recent volatility expansion. After months of tight compression—where Bollinger Bands squeezed together as price moved sideways—bands have widened dramatically this month following the record leverage liquidation last weekend. That $19 billion flush created the volatility breakout that analysts predicted during September’s market lull, calling it an incoming “volatility storm.”
The 50-Week Moving Average Keeps Holding
Bitcoin currently struggles at $108,000 resistance—a former support level that flipped after Friday’s dump. Despite failing to reclaim that level immediately, analysts remain bullish based on longer-term indicators.
Analyst ‘Sykodelic’ highlighted the 50-week simple moving average as the key technical level to watch. Bitcoin has tagged this line four times since November, and each time triggered panic selling with traders declaring the bull market over. And each time, Bitcoin rebounded strongly and pushed higher.
“Every single time the price has come down to tag the 1W 50SMA, there has been mass fear in the market, with the majority panic selling and everyone saying it is over,” Sykodelic noted. “And every time it has rebounded with strength and pushed much higher.”
This pattern recognition suggests current fear may be creating another buying opportunity rather than signaling the start of a bear market. The 50-week moving average acts as a psychological and technical support level that has repeatedly proven reliable throughout this cycle.
Why This Setup Feels Different
Several factors make Bollinger’s current observation particularly interesting. First, he’s calling patterns on altcoins before Bitcoin—suggesting ETH and SOL might lead the next leg up rather than following BTC’s direction. That’s unusual but not unprecedented in crypto markets where leadership occasionally rotates.
Second, the patterns are forming after major volatility expansion, not during quiet consolidation. The leverage flush created the conditions for reversal patterns to develop at lower price levels, potentially setting up strong bounces as overleveraged positions got cleared out.
Third, multiple technical indicators are aligning: Bollinger’s ‘W’ bottoms, the 50-week moving average support, and volatility band expansion all point toward setup conditions for significant moves. When different analytical approaches converge on similar conclusions, the probability of the anticipated move increases.
What Traders Should Actually Watch
If you’re trying to act on Bollinger’s observation, focus on whether Bitcoin develops its own ‘W’ bottom pattern in coming days. Ether and Solana showing the setup first creates a hypothesis, but Bitcoin confirming the same pattern would significantly strengthen the bullish case given its market dominance.
Watch for Bitcoin to retest and hold support at current levels, potentially dipping once more before establishing the second bottom of a ‘W’ formation. If that happens while Bollinger Bands remain wide (indicating continued volatility), the reversal setup becomes more convincing.
The $108,000 resistance level matters too. Breaking back above would flip that level from resistance back to support and suggest the recent dump was indeed just a volatility spike rather than trend reversal. Failure to reclaim it doesn’t necessarily invalidate the bullish setup—it just means the base-building process takes longer.
Most importantly, remember that technical analysis identifies probabilities, not certainties. Bollinger’s July 2024 call was right, but even legendary analysts don’t have perfect track records. His observation adds weight to the bullish case, especially given his track record and expertise, but it’s one data point among many.
For now, the message is clear: the analyst who invented Bollinger Bands sees patterns forming that historically precede major moves. Whether that translates to another doubling like the $55K to $100K run remains to be seen, but based on his last call, it’s probably worth paying attention.